What to look out for about U.S.-Iran ceasefire
Here are some pressure points to look out for as negotiations continue:
- Control over the Strait of Hormuz: The U.S. has begun a naval blockade against maritime traffic because of the toll prices Iran was demanding for ships to go through the strait. This could cause oil and gas prices to keep rising and potentially lead to the ceasefire collapsing and war to break out, according to the BBC. The U.S. military says no ships passed its blockade, despite reports saying more than 20 commercial ships have.
More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports. During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels… pic.twitter.com/dpWAAknzQp
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 14, 2026
- Iran’s nuclear program: Iran is willing to negotiate its limits but keeps insisting on maintaining some levels of uranium and enrichment. Washington proposed a 20-year freeze on Iran’s uranium enrichment in its proposal. However, Tehran will only agree to a five-year limitation, according to The Times Of India.
- Cessation of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon: The U.S. is leading negotiations between Israel and Lebanon regarding a ceasefire agreement. The attacks on Lebanon have been mentioned by Tehran as included in its ceasefire agreement with the U.S. Despite disagreements, Abbas Araghchi, foreign minister of Iran, said it will not accept continued “massacres in Lebanon,” according to CNN.
By Connor Lalea Hampton & Sara Gomez, April 14, 2026
The United States and Iran established a two-week ceasefire agreement April 7, 2026, temporarily pausing a month-long war, which is set to expire April 22.
Iran accused the U.S. of breaking the ceasefire April 8 after Israel continued to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. However, there was some dispute about whether that was included in the ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance later said the ceasefire would hold despite this misunderstanding, according to New York Post.
At least 254 people died and 1,165 people were reported injured in Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, according to the The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.
Broadly, the ceasefire includes President Donald Trump pausing attacks on Iran if Tehran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz, an important water route for oil transportation. Iran agreed to do this, according to BBC.
“Both sides are going to claim victory, no matter what happens,” said Cal Poly Pomona political science lecturer Luis Bohon. “Even if the situation gets worse, each will frame it as a win, which makes it hard to understand their true goals.”
Iran also presented a 10-point plan during the ceasefire for negotiating purposes. The proposal is a broad peace agreement that includes the cessation of all fighting in regions of Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, and confirmation that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume safely. However, it also maintains Iran as the country in control of the Strait of Hormuz, which could be a problem, according to The New York Times.
Iran is also asking for any nuclear related resolutions against Iran to be lifted and for enrichment rights to be renegotiated, as well as reparations for damages inflicted during U.S. attacks on the country. Both sides promised to not attack each other or pursue nuclear weapons to reduce regional conflicts, according to Türkiye Today.
The U.S. presented an additional 15-point plan, but those details have not yet been published.
For CPP students and faculty, a huge consequence of this war has been the cost of gas and airplane tickets. Over the last month, regular gas prices have soared from $5.40 to $5.80 per gallon, according to AAA. The prices have been dropping slowly by tenths of cents over the second week of the ceasefire, but analysts say there could be another price increase depending on access to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Los Angeles Daily News.
The rising gas prices from the war is a cause for concern for seven out of 10 Americans, according to Pew Research Center.
“This is a big commuter school, so most students are driving to campus daily,” said psychology student Victoria Morales. “With gas prices rising, I think it’s adding stress for a lot of people.”
The ceasefire is problematic in several ways, according to Marc Scarcelli, a professor of political science at CPP, especially because Iran expected Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and did not. Trump and Iran believe different things about the ceasefire, Scarcelli added.
Iran wanted the U.S. to withdraw all forces and reimburse them for the costs of the war, which Scarcelli said will never happen.
“On the flip side, (Trump) thinks the ceasefire will be (that) they’ll completely open the Strait of Hormuz and give up their nuclear program and do anything we tell them,” Scarcelli said. “We’re nowhere near that either.”
The U.S. has also blocked Iran’s ports since April 13 to pressure Iran to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS.
Scarcelli said oil and allyship to Israel are two of three motivations for this war on the U.S. side, with the third being to force Iran to stop enriching uranium.
“Oil (is a motivation) to some extent, and especially with regard to the Strait of Hormuz, although with regard to this conflict, this was a risk to global oil supplies,” Scarcely said. “That should have been very, very obvious going in.”
In Trump’s first term, he pulled out of a nuclear arms deal made by former President Barack Obama in 2015. He claimed the deal let Iran develop and possess nuclear weapons, although according to a fact check from PBS News, this is untrue.
In the 2015 deal, Iran let go of 97% of its uranium, centrifuges and plutonium production sites and the U.S. threatened to reinstate sanctions if Iran violated the deal. The deal was in place for 28 months with no infringements found on Iran’s part, besides some minor infractions like research activities and exceeding limits on heavy water that were addressed, according to PBS.
Trump has said he wants to pick the new supreme leader of Iran after killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026; however, he also mentioned in another interview Iranians should rise up against Ayatollah Khamenei and his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the new supreme leader, and choose their own government. Both options would have vastly different outcomes and timelines for boots-on-the-ground intervention, according to Scarcelli.
It is unclear what will happen after the ceasefire because negotiation is still underway. Pakistani leadership has been mediating talks between the U.S. and Iran. Vance told a Turning Point USA audience April 14 he felt negotiations were in a good place, although there were still no deals made.
If the ceasefire is not broken, it will end April 22. The Poly Post will continue to cover these negotiations between Iran and the U.S. including the consequences of oil prices rising due to the conflict.
CBS news and Al Jazeera also offer live updates about the Iran war.
Feature graphic courtesy of Connor Lalea Hampton