By Charlize Althea Garcia, Sep. 24, 2024
Out of breath. Sweat everywhere. Dehydrated. That 10 minute walk from the parking lot to a class. These oppressive temperatures did not exactly bode well for students of Cal Poly Pomona. And that walk will only get worse. With record-breaking temperatures, summer 2024 was the hottest summer to date.
From June to August, the meteorological summer, the average temperature across the U.S. was 73.8 degrees, 2.5 degrees above average. Southern California, along with the rest of the world, has gone into an upward trend in temperature since 1850 with an average of 0.11 Fahrenheit per decade. 1982 had a rate of warming three times as fast, 0.36 Fahrenheit per decade.
The months from January to August 2024 has had an increase of 2.30 degrees Fahrenheit, ranked as the warmest year-to-date ever recorded
“For Southern California, what it usually means is that we get longer, hotter heatwaves,” said Donald Prothero, professor of geological sciences. “So, we have more days above a certain threshold, and we have longer summers in that respect. Of course, the effects then are primarily drought.”
For the past two weeks, Southern California has been enduring extreme heatwaves with temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Daytime temperatures went over 100 degrees, with nighttime temperatures above 80 degrees.
David Gomberg, weather program manager of NOAA, explained heatwaves began to be common in September because the sea breeze tends to weaken that month. This creates a high pressure dome which leads to warm air and wind mixing.
Typically, extreme heat is in the mountains and deserts, but due to this offshore close, the heat is brought closer to the surface making communities like the San Fernando Valley and the San Gabriel Valley to become even hotter than they would be in June or July. of the pressure gradient, or sea breeze, that tends to weaken.
Although the past week presented a drastic shift in temperature with maximum temperatures in the 70s, it points to extreme weather abnormalities that will occur regularly for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.
For example, summers will be full of heatwaves and fires, which will be followed by intense winter weather and flash flooding.
“When you start having a series of events happening more frequently, like these heatwaves that we’re having more frequent and more intense over time, then that’s a signal in terms of long-term climate pattern,” said Gomberg. “Everything is fairly gradual in nature.”
The Bridge Fire was classified as a “high probability event,” according to Gomberg. Gomberg and his team knew well in advance about the significant heat wave and its record-high temperatures. Fire agencies such as Emergency Command Center Dispatch Area (ECCDA) and Fire Weather Watches in California were warned prior to the event about a high probability of a large fire.
Major heat waves create a greater chance for plume vertical growth (like the large smoke plumes from the Bridge Fire). The hotter it gets, the more unstable the atmosphere gets and allows the vertical growth.
Late August through early September offers a maximum for higher probability of large fires in our Southern California mountains and foothills, according to Gomberg.
Though the upward trend is higher temperatures and destructive fires, there are individual anomalies that influence the trajectory of atmospheric conditions.
“Weather really dictates the situation,” said Gomberg. Weather is the trigger, the driving force to initiate a major event. If we didn’t have this heat wave, we wouldn’t be talking about this Bridge Fire. It would just be smaller to moderate type fires, and it wouldn’t be newsworthy.”
Weather and climate can seem synonymous, but they actually hold different functions on the planet. Weather refers to short-term conditions, while climate looks at the long-term predictions according to Gomberg.
The direct answer to the spike in hot temperatures is global warming and climate change according to Donald Prothero and Gabriel Granco.
Gabriel Granco, associate professor of geography, mentioned El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon, brings a drier period and warmer temperatures. With a combination of El Nino and climate change, heat is becoming a normality.
“Climate change will move some of our traditional seasons,” said Granco.
Due to the warming of the planet, fall temperatures can take longer to arrive and the detectability of a wet season in winter becomes unpredictable. The patterns we are used to, such as the seasons now, will be modified and become more difficult to keep track of.
Greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of climate change according to Granco and Prothero.
“Even if we stop all the greenhouse gas emissions we have today, we are still going to have global warming because the greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere are going to remain there for a long period of time,” said Granco. “It takes a while for the temperature to go back to or to revert the global warming process we are experiencing.”
That’s not to say that the public shouldn’t be cautious of their carbon footprint. If the world continues to emit as much greenhouse gases into the atmosphere today, the planet will continue to warm up at increasing speeds that will lead to unpredictability according to Granco.
Climate models are crucial in the predictability of weather. With extreme shifts in atmospheric conditions, the process can become unfamiliar to what scientists are used to now, especially in the next century according to Granco.
Granco also mentioned that there won’t be drastic changes in weather within the next decade, but there is a prediction of climatic events, such as droughts and heatwaves, becoming more prevalent or more intense. These phenomena will be quick in transition as well, swinging from drought to wetness to drought in a shorter amount of time.
“There are things that are reversable,” Prothero said.” There’s a lot of talk about ways where we can make the situation better. But first of all, there has to be a will to do it. That takes political will and it means making changes that are radical and sacrificing which we don’t do very well.”
With temperatures rising, the heat of political discourse increases concurrently.
“You can’t be indifferent. It’s your future,” said Prothero. The world is already different from what it was when you were born in ways you’ve already probably noticed especially with longer heatwaves and droughts and fires.”
Featured Image courtesy of Bryan Doan